统筹城乡的人口预测模型构建与应用——以陕西省城乡人口分年龄预测为例

The Construction and Application of Coordinating Urban And Rural Population Projection Model: A Case of Shaanxi province

探索分城乡、分年龄的人口预测方法对于制定经济、社会发展规划,规避未来人口结构变动带来的风险具有基础理论意义。本文在文献回顾的基础上,定性描述了统筹城乡的人口预测思路,据此对人口发展方程进行了改进,构建了考虑人口城乡迁移和人口区域流动因素的人口分年龄预测模型;运用陕西省的人口数据进行了参数设定,对2008—2050年陕西省城乡分年龄人口进行了预测,研究发现,陕西省总人口呈先升后降的趋势,人口高峰年为2037年;城镇人口数总体上升,农村人口数总体下降。

Exploring the method of forecast urban and rural population age structure and making the sense of basic theory for framing economic and social development planning and mitigate change of population risks. This paper describes the urban and rural population projections forecast ideas,which based on the documentations, and tb.en improved the population development equation. According to the ideas, the author constructed the coordinating urban and rural population projection model. At last, this paper set the parameters with the data of Shaanxi province, and forecast the population in 2008-2050, and tim that the total population will increase after declining and the peek in 2037.