从历年第一季度经济运行看广西2009年经济走势

Judging Macro-Economic Tendency in 2009 by economy run at the first quarter in the past years in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

为研究2009年广西宏观经济走势及发展对策,采用回归分析法和图解法运用影响广西宏观经济的五个主要指标对1997年以来第一季度对全年的贡献度进行了研究。结果表明:各指标一季度产出和全年产出具有同向性,线性拟合良好。在对2009年第一季度对全年影响进行预测后,文章认为,面对国际金融危机,当前经济企稳回升的广西需要:以6000亿为目标加快推进项目建设、以工业结构优化升级为导向的改投资、以供应链融资为核心的中小企业发展模式和以错位发展为前提的区域合作模式。

In order to study the economic direction and development stratagem of the Guangxi macro economy, this paper adopted the method of regression analysis and diagram, analyzed the first quarter contribution to the whole year based on the five index of the Guangxi macro economy. The result indicated that the output of the first quarter and the whole year has the same developmental direction and the better linear relation. Having forecasted the first quarter contribution to the 2009 year, the article considers that to face the finance crisis, the Guangxi need to push the item construction aimed the 6 hundred billion investments, the technology betterment investments guided by industry configuration optimization and upgrade, the Small and Middle Sized Enterprises development centered by the Financing of the supply chain, and the Regional Coordination Based on the Misplaced Development.