新清单计价模式下投标报价阶段的项目成本预测研究

Research on the Prediction of Project Cost in Bidding Stage Based on New Bill Quantity of Construction Works

研究目的:我国的工程计价正在逐步与国际接轨。新修订并实施的2008版建设工程工程量清单计价规范进一步完善了不尽合理、可操作性不强的条款和表格格式,特别增加了采用工程量清单计价如何编制投标报价和风险分担等内容,对建筑企业进行项目成本预测提出了更高的要求。然而目前通常采用的成本预测方法不能完全适应新的发展需要,必须总结经验,归纳出新的方法。研究结果:结合国际和国内工程量清单计价及其对成本预测的新要求,归纳、总结了定量性成本预测的5种方法,设计了成本预测的程序;提出了根据不同成本构成要素分别采用不同预测方法进行成本预测的新思想。经过验证,该预测方法和预测程序能够准确、及时地进行投标项目成本预测,具有良好的应用价值。

Research purposes：The Chinese project valuation is in line with the international conventions gradually.Those unseasonable and uneasy to be followed terms and tabular formats have been revised in newly revised and implemented 2008 Valuation Code with Bill Quantity for Construction Works.In particular,the contents of how to prepare tender offer with bill quantity pricing and how to share the risks are added.This sets an even higher demands on construction enterprises in conducting the project cost prediction.However the currently common-used cost prediction method could not meet the development need completely,so the new method should be sought.Research results：Based on the international and domestic project valuations and the new demands of cost prediction,five methods for cost prediction in quantum are summed up,a program is designed for the cost prediction,and the new thoughts is presented on using the different methods for the projects with different composing elements.The verification shows the cost prediction methods presented in this paper can predict the project cost accurately and timely with a good applicable value.