摘要
探讨了基于信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型气象灾害风险评价方法,为了更完全地描述气象灾害风险,在超越概率计算的基础之上,分析其分布曲线规律,并定义了超越概率信息熵来衡量风险的不确定性,为气象灾害风险管理提供更详细的参考。利用贵州省凝冻灾害指数资料,对贵州省凝冻灾害风险评估进行实例分析,并得出凝冻灾害风险区划图。
The method of the meteorological disaster risk assessment based on the fuzzy mathematics theory model of diffused information is discussed in this study. In order to describe the risk of meteorological disaster, based on surpassing transcendental probability calculation, it analyses the law of the distribution curve, and defines the transcendental probability information entropy which is used to measure the uncer- tainty of risk, and provides more detailed reference for meteorological disaster risk management. Using the frozen disaster index data of Guizhou Province, it carries out an example analysis on frozen disaster risk assessment and gets the zoning map of frozen disaster risk.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2009年第14期6498-6500,6569,共4页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金(NSFC40765004)
贵州省社会发展攻关项目(黔科合SZ[2008]3019)
贵州气象创新项目(2008-IP02)
关键词
风险评估
信息扩散
信息熵
凝冻灾害
贵州
Risk assessment
Information diffusion
Message entropy
Frozen disaster
Guizhou
