用准周期(PP)方法预测地震序列中早期强余震

Prediction of the Earlier Strong Aftershocks in the Earthquake Sequences by the Pseudo period Method

研究了地震序列的准周期性，提出了预测早期强余震发生时间的准周期性方法及其定量预报指标，同时进行了回溯性预报检验，Ｒ值评分为０４５。表明该方法具有一定的预报效能。

The characteristics of the pseudo period is studied in this paper, and the pseudo period method and its quantitive prediction indexes for the time of occurence of earlier strong aftershock are proposed. The tests of regressive prediction are made, and the R value of the tests is 0.45 which means this method is effective for the prediction.