山西中部地区地震灾害损失预测

EARTHQUAKE LOSS PREDICTION FOR CENTRAL SHANXI

简要分析了山西中部的历史地震灾害，用地震安全性评定的综合概率法计算了每个单元遭遇烈度的概率，并对建筑物类型进行分类，根据各类建筑物的易损性矩阵和不同类型单元的人涡震亡率、震伤率矩阵，计算出各个单元建筑物的期望经济损失和人员伤亡期望绝对值，并对计算结果进行了分析和比较。

The historical earthquake damages in central Shanxi are reviewed andanalyzed. By the use of integrated probabilistic method of seismic safety evaluation, theprobabilities of seismic intensity in each unit structure are calculated and the buildingtypes in the district are classified. According to the vulnerability matrixes of each typeof building and anticipated death and injury rate matrixes of each unit structure, the expected absolute values of loss, injury and death rate of each unit structure are computedand analyzed.