地震发生非稳态泊松过程和中长期概率预测研究

NON-STATIONARY POISSON PROCESS OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE AND RESEARCH ON LONG-AND MEDIUM-TERM PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

在描述事件非稳态泊松过程的基本统计特征及其与稳态泊松过程差别的基础上 ,将非稳态泊松过程应用在华北地震区汾渭带和华北平原地震带的中长期地震预测研究中。研究表明 ,假定未来几百年间 ,汾渭带和华北平原带的强震 ( M≥ 7.0 )活动 ,将重现上一次地震轮回的非稳态泊松时间过程 ,那么 ,在 2 0 1 0年前它们发生一次 7级大地震的累计概率分别为 0 .2 6(不确定性范围 :0 .0 6～ 0 .5 0 )和 0 .0 4 (不确定性范围 :0 .0 0～ 0 .1 3)。

This paper describes the basic statistical characteristics of non stationary Poisson process of the events and differences between non stationary and stationary Poisson processes, and applies the non stationary Poisson process to study the long and medium term probabilistic earthquake prediction in North China seismic area. Supposing that the non stationary Poisson time process of strong earthquakes (M S ≥7.0), in the last seismic cycle for the Fenwei and North China Plain seismic zones in North China seismic area would recur in the coming several hundred years, the cumulative probability for occurrence of a strong earthquake (M S ≥7.0) in the two zones should respectively be 0.26 (uncertainty range:0.06～0.50) and 0.04 (uncertainty range:0.00～0.13) before 2010, which are obviously less than that calculated based on the stationary Poisson process.