体应变最大熵谱分析在江苏及邻区中强震的预报应用

APPLICATION OF MAXIMUM ENTROPY SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF BODY-STRAIN IN PREDICTION OF MODER ATELY STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN JIANGSU PROVINCE AND ITS NEIGHBOURING REGION

最大熵谱分析方法具有分辨率高、灵敏度和稳定性好等优点。把它引用到应力应变学科中 ,为该学科在地震预报中开辟一条新路 ,也是对最大熵谱分析方法应用的推广。选用了徐州台、溧阳台近年来的体应变观测资料 ,着重研究了南黄海 6.1级地震、苍山 5 .2级地震和射阳4.6级地震。研究结果表明 ,地震前的短临阶段体应变谱结构第一主频均有不同程度的衰减或增强 ,这种变化反映了地震前兆信息 。

Maximum entropy spectral analysis has the merits of high resolution and sensibility as well as stability. The introduction of it into the discipline of stress strain cannot only benefit the development of the earthquake prediction, but also the development of this method.With the observational body strain data at Xuzhou and Liyang stations, we studied Yellow Sea earthquake (M S 6.1), Cangshan earthquake (M S 5.2) and Sheyang earthquake (M S 4.6).It is found that the strength of the first body strain primary frequency appears attenuation or accretion in the stage of short imminent term before the earthquakes. This variation indicates the information of earthquake precursors, and therefore it is applicable to the short imminent earthquake prediction.