基于货币量值分析的就业决定与中国的经验——加快农村剩余劳动力转移的战略选择

Determination of the Employment Based on the Analysis of the Monetary Value and the Experience of China——Strategic Choice for Speeding up the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor Force

基于货币量值的两部门模型表明,就业增长率由名义GDP增长率、工资比重、工资率及其变化率所决定。中国改革30年的经验也证实,名义GDP的高速增长是我国就业总量稳定增长、农村剩余劳动力快速转移的基本保证,而行业间非均衡的资产值、工资率增长都会对就业增长产生挤出效应。实行扩张性的货币政策,改变现存的货币资本分配格局,以降低对房地产等高档消费品部门的投资比重及高工资率,同时加大对基本消费品等部门的投资力度并提高工资率,这是从整体上提高全社会的就业增长率、加快农村剩余劳动力转移的战略选择。

The two - sector model based on the monetary value shows that the growth rate of the employment is determined by the nominal GDP growth rate, the proportion of wages, the rate of the wages and its changes. The experiences of China＇s reform in the past 30 years also confirm that the rapid growth of the nominal GDP is the basic guarantee for the stable growth of China＇ s total employment and the quick transfer of rural surplus labor force. Both the unbalanced value of the assets among industries and the growth of wage rate have a crowding-out effect on the growth of employment. In order to reduce the proportion of investment and the high wage rate of the high - end consumer goods sectors such as real estate, and at the same time increase the proportion of investment and the wage rate of the basic consumer goods sectors, we must implement expansionary monetary policy to change the existing pattern of currency capital distribution which is the strategic choice for increasing the overall employment growth rate of the whole society and speeding up the transfer of rural surplus labor force.