经济结构、政策差异与商业周期——以区际一体化为视角

Economic Structure,Policy Different and Business Cycle——Based on the Perspective of Regional Integration

基于国际商业周期的经验分析，从我国区域一体化的角度，实证分析了“自然壁垒”和“经济结构与政策差异”两类壁垒因素。通过比较样本期（1992—1997年和1998～2004年）内就业和产出水平的周期同步性发现，我国的周期同步性具有演进增强的趋势，但东、中、西部存在明显的周期差异；通过设置边界虚拟变量研究发现，我国东西部之间可能存在明显的“区域分界线”，割裂了大区域之间的经济联系。从变量的周期解释来看，财政政策差异和贸易密度差异是影响周期同步性的波动因素，而反映市场化推进的樊纲指数对周期的影响是不确定的；经济结构差异越合理，商业周期越趋向同步性。

This paper documents a correlation between business cycle and regional economic integration, and explores the regional difference from both natural segmentation and economic structure and policy. Data from provinces for two periods of 1992- 1997 and 1998 - 2004 emphasize increased synchronization for both employment and output cycle, which shows the synchronous correlation for business cycle and economics system reform, here the author analyzes the different independent variables which influence business cycle. The result also shows obvious negative correlation between business cycle and some exogenous factors like distance and size. The author finds most regressions turn west - east border negative significant. Results indeed stress the cleavage existing between the western and eastern provinces, which blocks crossregional economic correlation. Besides, regional cycle can be explained partly by Fangang Index from the different sides. On the other hand, the more reasonable is the economic structure difference,the more synchronized is business cycle. Fiscal policy divergence and trade density divergence are mainly fluctuation factors for business cycle.