摘要
2009年,影响东南亚地区形势最重要的外部因素,是全球金融海啸引发的发达国家经济衰退,影响的深度与广度,取决于发达国家的经济衰退持续的时间,刚刚从1997年金融危机中走出来的东南亚国家又将经受一次重大的考验。从政治层面看,东南亚在2009年将会是比较平稳的一年,印尼的大选不会出现大的波澜;泰国在经历了几年的动荡之后,人心思定,街头政治不得人心;马来西亚两大政党联盟——国民阵线和人民联盟争权夺利,但是,这种斗争将会限制在制度范围内。在地区国际关系方面,发达国家忙于国内救火,自顾不暇,而东南亚两个最大的邻居——中国和印度则是风景这边独好,东南亚地区发展进程中的中国因素和印度因素将会进一步凸显。
In the year of 2009, the most important external factor influencing Southeast Asia is the economic recession of developed countries caused by financial tsunami. How far and how deep the influence will be depend on how long the economic recession lasts. It is just the second serious challenge for Southeast Asia coming from Asian financial crisis in 1997. In 2009, the political situation in Southeast Asia will keep stable. The general election in Indonesia will not set too many billows; after many years of turbulence, Thailand people long for peace and the street-politics becomes unpopular; in Malaysia, the struggle between two main parties-Barisan National and Pakatan Rakyat will not go beyond the limit of national and political system. As for the international relations in this area, domestic affairs will be the main business for developed countries; however, the national situation of the two biggest neighboring countries of Southeast Asia-China and India is rather good and their importance for the development of Southeast Asia will be ever growing.
出处
《东南亚研究》
CSSCI
2009年第2期38-45,共8页
Southeast Asian Studies
关键词
东南亚
经济
政治
国际关系
Southeast Asia
Economy
Politics
International Relations
