(海外)非传统合同油气项目的动态规划评估研究

A Study of the Evaluation on the Dynamic Planning of Nontraditional Contract Oil-Gas Project(Oversea)

在净现值法基础上,利用动态规划实现跨期优化,解决了非传统油气项目合同经济评价中的原油价格、自然递减率等外生参数的动态选择问题,实现了资金约束等条件下的内生变量——每年钻井数的优化,不仅得到这一多阶段决策问题的最优开发方案,而且在此基础上也实现了对非传统(海外)油气项目的评估。

According to the net present value method, the dynamic planning is used to actualize crossperiod optimization, and thus solve some dynamic option problems of foreign produced parameters like the prices of crude oil and the natural lapse rate in the evaluation on the nontraditional contract oil - gas project. Meanwhile, some internal produced variables such as the optimization of annual drilling numbers have been realized under the conditions like the fund restriction. This not only offers the optimum development program of multiple - stages decisions, but also realizes the evaluation on the non - traditional contract oil - gas project（oversea）.