基于耕地保护的中国城镇化发展战略研究

Research on China’s Urbanization Development Based on Cultivated Land Preservation Strategies

研究目的:研究中国城市位序—规模规律的演化和城市建成区人口密度同城市规模关系的变化,预测未来城镇化发展占用耕地情况,提出基于耕地保护的中国城镇化发展对策建议。研究方法:文献资料法、回归分析法和函数模型预测法。研究结果:中国城市建成区人口密度随城市人口规模的增加而增加,但正在快速下降,中国城镇化同耕地保护之间的矛盾日益突出。研究结论:为更加有效地保护耕地,中国应加快制定以发展大城市为主导,各级城市城镇全面发展的城镇化战略,推行高人口密度的城镇化发展政策措施,走紧凑型城镇化道路。

The purpose of this paper is to study the rank-size evolution law of Chinese cities and the changes of relationship between urban built-up area population density and the size of the city, to predict the occupation of cultivated land due to urbanization development, and to present responsive measures and proposals against the development of China＇s urbanization based on cultivated land preservation. Methods employed include documentation, regression analysis, and functional model prediction. The results indicate that China＇s urban population density increases with urban population scale, but the increase rate is declining rapidly, so the contradiction between China＇s urbanization and the protection of cultivated land has become increasingly prominent. The conclusion is that, in order to protect cultivated land more effectively, China should establish its comprehensive urbanization development strategy with large cities as the principal task and meanwhile encourage the formation of cities and towns of different sizes with rational structures, promote high population density urban development practices.