美国维护还是破坏了世界经济的稳定？ --基于霸权收益计算的理论解释与实证分析

The United States and Stability of the Word Economy:Income Calculation and Theoretical Analysis based on the Hegemonic Neutral

以美国为代表的霸权国家与世界经济发展之间存在着密切的联系,但霸权国家与世界经济的稳定性之间并不必然存在着明确的正相关或者负相关关系。美国并没有维系世界经济的稳定,也不是导致世界经济不稳定的唯一力量。无论是全球型霸权国家还是俱乐部型霸权国家及其国家集团,它们在向国际社会提供公共产品以谋求霸权利益时,都会进行利益计算,但霸权国家的利益诉求和利益计算方法始终处于调整与变化之中。当霸权国家核心决策者发生更替或者霸权国的利益目标及决策偏好出现变化时,霸权国家的目标函数与时间贴现因子也会相应出现变化,进而改变霸权国家可控制资源配置的最优条件。对于国际社会秩序和世界经济运行的稳定与否,以美国为代表的霸权国家或者霸权国家集团的存在是中性的。

Based on relevant literature of international political economy(IPE),this article analyses hegemony and stability of the world economy with dynamic theoretical models.Although the hegemonic powers are active players in the development of the world economy,there is no direct positive or negative relations between hegemonic states and the stability of world economy.All hegemonic power,either global or club hegemony,can calculate their income derived from hegemony and the provision of public goods.But their interests and calculation method are always changing as the income content and resource allocation varies.Under certain conditions,the behavior of hegemonic powers can result in either stability or instability of world economy,and the hegemonic powers are neutral.