浙江林业产业结构效应与战略选择实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Effects and Strategic Choice of Forestry Industrial Structure in Zhejiang Province

产业结构是衡量产业发展水平的重要标志。首先,援引数据对浙江林业产业结构的现状进行分析,找出浙江林业结构变化的基本规律;其次,采用灰色动态关联度的分析方法,对浙江林业三大产业与林业产业总体之间的关系予以实证分析;再次,采用GM(1,1)灰色模型,对2008～2012年浙江林业产业结构的发展趋势进行预测。最后,针对实证分析的结果,提出浙江林业产业结构优化升级的对策建议。

Industrial structure is an important indicator of the level of industrial development. First, the paper quotes data to analyze the status of forestry industrial structure in Zhejiang Province to identify the basic law of forestry industry structure changes. Second, the analysis method of gray correlation is adopted to analyze the relationship between three major parts of forestry industry and the overall forestry industry in Zhejiang Province empirically. Third, based on GM （1, 1） gray model, the paper predicts the development trends of forestry industrial structure in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2012. Finally, in view of the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forwards the countermeasures and proposals of optimizing and upgrading forestry industrial structure in Zhejiang Province.