福建省粮食产量气象灾害风险评估

Risk Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster on Grain Yield in Fujian Province

利用福建省1978—2004年66个县(区)的粮食单产资料,通过统计处理得到相对气象产量,并以相对气象产量的变化来表征福建粮食产量气象灾害风险程度。采用歉年平均减产率,歉年减产率变异系数,相对气象产量低于-5%的保证率3个风险指标作为综合风险评估指标,来评估福建粮食单产气象灾害风险。结果表明全省各县综合风险指数介于0.08～0.73之间,高风险区主要分布在平潭县、泉州和漳州的大部县市、龙岩和三明的西部县市、宁德市东北部和南平的部分县市,这些区域的台风、暴雨、干旱和寒害等灾害对粮食单产的影响较大;低风险区主要分布在福建中部沿海县市及内陆县市,气象灾害对对粮食单产的影响相对小些。

Based on per unit grain yield derived from 66 counties during 1978-2004 in Fujian province, relative meteorological yield was analyzed with the help of statistic means, and the risk degree of meteorological disaster on grain yield was showed by the variety of relative meteorological yield in this area. We choose three comprehensive risk assessment indices： average rate of yield reduction and variation coefficient of reduction rate in the poor harvest year, accumulate probability of relative meteorological yield less than -5%. Through the above indices, the risk of meteorological disaster of per unit grain yield in Fujian Province was evaluated. The result indicated that the comprehensive risk index of each county in Fujian Province between 0.08 to 0.73, the high risk region mainly distributed Pingtan county, the mostly counties of Quanzhou and Zhangzhou, the west counties of Longyan and Sanming, the northeast region of Ninde and some counties of Nanping, the per unit grain yield of this area is mostly affected by some meteorological disasters, such as typhoon, rainstorm, drought, cold injury and so on. The tow risk region mainly distributed in littoral counties of middle region and the interior region of Fujian province; the effect of meteorological disaster in this area is smaller than the high risk region.