经济增长、人口结构、金融市场对中国储蓄率影响分析——基于修正的生命周期模型的实证分析

Economic Growth,Demographic Structure,Financial Market and Chinese Saving Ratio——empirical analysis based on modified LCH

本文将金融市场引入传统生命周期理论,研究了经济增长,人口结构,金融市场三因素对中国居民储蓄率的影响。通过EVIEWS5.0计量软件,对时间序列数据(1981-2006)进行实证分析,运用Granger因果检验各变量间的因果关系,通过协整检验分析各变量间长期均衡关系,并构造向量误差修正模型对中国储蓄率进行动态预测其变化趋势,最后通过方差分解显示各因素对储蓄率的方差变动影响程度,从而对各变量的重要性进行定量测量。结论表明,传统生命周期模型只能解释部分中国高储蓄率问题,而本文所提供的修正后的生命周期理论能够更好地解释中国现实。

This paper studies the impacts of economic growth, demographic structure and financial market on Chinese Saving Ratio by introducing the variable of financial market to traditional Life-cycle hypothesis. By using Eviews5.0, the Chinese time-series data （1981-2006） was analyzed empirically. It examines the relations of causes and effects among variables via Granger causality test and verifies the long-turn equilibrium among variables through Co-integration test. After that, a VEC model is established to make dynamic predictions of the changing trends in Chinese Saving Ratio. Finally, this article demonstrates the influences of relative factors on the saving ratio with the help of VEC Variance decompositions and sequentially, the importance of variables are measured quantitatively. It is found that the traditional LCH can＇ t explain the saving behavior of Chinese people comprehensively, while the modified LCH which is promoted in this paper gives a better interpretation on the reality in China.