影响全国与北京工业能源消费的关键要素对比分析

Comparable Analysis of Key Factors Affecting Industry Energy Consumption of Whole nation and Beijing

全国能源强度2002年开始上升,北京能源强度却一直呈现下降态势;这不仅和北京第三产业快速发展相关,而且北京工业能源强度也保持了下降趋势。基于对数均值迪氏指数分解法,将能源消费分解成规模效应、结构效应和效率效应,对1998～2006年的北京及全国工业能源消费量进行了分解及对比分析。研究表明,效率效应对全国工业能源消费下降起到了比较显著的作用,而结构效应和效率效应共同促使北京的能源消费降低。与全国相比,北京大力促进高科技产业的发展,控制黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学工业等高耗能工业的发展,是其工业能源强度迅速降低的一个重要原因。最后,分析了北京能源强度快速下降对全国的启示,并提出了全国能源消费进一步降低的政策建议。

Beijing energy intensity keeps decreasing, after China energy intensity increased in 2002. This is not only because Beijing tertiary industry is developed quickly, but also because Beijing industry energy intensity keeps decreasing as well. Based on the method of LMDI, China and Beijing energy consumption are decomposed into production effect, structure effect and intensity effect. And then it comparatively analyzes the factors affecting energy consumption between China and Beijing from 1998 to 2006. The result shows that the intensity effect plays important role in China energy consumption, while both the structure effect and the intensity effect play important roles in Beijing energy consumption. Comparing with China, there is the important reason to reduce Beijing energy intensity, that is, it promotes high-technology industry development and controls nonferrous metals processing industry and Chemical industry etc.. In the end, the paper analyzes the enlightenment got from Beijing, and provides the suggestions for China energy save policies.