摘要
基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术对我国居民人均消费的影响因素进行实证分析,发现我国居民人均收入增长对人均消费增长贡献最大,固定资产投资增长和人均储蓄存款增长对我国居民人均消费增长率也有比较大的贡献。格兰杰因果检验证实了这一结论。我国固定资产投资增长与居民人均收入增长存在双向的格兰杰因果关系;同时人均消费增长也对我国居民人均收入增长有着微弱的影响。
Based on impulse-response function of the vector auto-regressive model and variance decomposition technique applied to empirically analyze the factors that affect the per capita consumption of China, it is found that the contribution-rate of China's per capita income growth to the fluctuation of the growth of China's per capita consumption is the largest. The growth of fixed-asset investment and per capita savings of China's residents also have relatively large contributions. Granger causality tests confirm the conclusions. China's fixed asset investment growth and per capita income growth of residents Granger causes each other; at the same time, growth in per capita consumption weakly affects the growth of China's per capita income.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第5期24-30,共7页
Economic Theory and Business Management
关键词
居民人均消费增长率
VAR模型
脉冲响应函数
the growth rate of per capita consumption of China
VAR model
impulse-response function