传统文化、制度变迁双重影响下的中国居民消费行为研究

The Chinese Consumption Behavior under the Dual Impacts of both Traditional Culture and Economic Transition

中国传统文化中的诸多特点使得中国居民形成了新的微观基础,铸就了异于"生命周期"式的"锯齿周期"式消费路径;转轨时期体制变迁引致的不确定性进一步加剧了这种阶段性的消费行为。本文根据跨时最优选择理论建立居民消费函数的一般结构,获得在不确定性、流动性双重约束下的居民消费函数,根据时间序列分析得出结论:转轨时期的不确定对居民消费影响明显,不确定性每提高1%,当期消费将降低0.569%,借贷约束对消费影响不显著。

Some characteristics of traditional culture endow Chinese residents a new micro-foundation, forming the ＂sawtooth cycle＂, a consumption pattern different from ＂life cycle＂; uncertainty arising from economic transition consolidates the consumption patterns. Based on the diachronic optimal selection theory, the paper establishes the general consumption function, obtaining the consumption function under the dual impact of both uncertainty and mobility. The conclusion by time series analysis shows that uncertainty during the transition period on the impact of household consumption is very clear and one percent improvement each in uncertainties, the current consumption will reduce 0.569%, while the impact of loan constraints on consumption is not significant.