我国东西部地区均衡积累路径的模拟与分析

The Analysis on the Equilibrium Accumulation Path between the Eastern and Western Regions of China

以拉姆齐模型的储蓄内生化分析框架为依据,采用均衡积累率的动态模拟测量公式,通过对数据的重新定义与口径调整,测算出我国东、西部地区均衡积累率的相关参数,模拟出东西部经济增长中的均衡积累路径,并对我国东、西部地区均衡积累路径进行比较分析。结论为:虽然我国实施了"西部大开发"战略,但西部地区资本积累水平仍处于低水平运行的非均衡增长状态,仍具有低积累水平和低人均资本存量的特征;而东部地区在经济增长的内在动因下,其投资冲动带来的资本扩张效应丝毫不亚于"西部大开发"战略的政策效应,积累水平已远高于均衡积累率。

Based on the analytical framework of saving endogenous in Ramsey model, this paper simulates the equilibrium accumulation path in the eastern and western regions of China. Although implementing the policy of the Development of the West Regions, the accumulation of capital and the capital stock are still very low. Due to the investment the increase in capital stock is rapid in the East Region.