随机模拟在水库群防洪库容设计中的应用

Application of Random Simulation in Flood Control Volume Design of Reservoir Group

实测系列法和设计洪水地区组成法是现行防洪库容设计中最常见的方法，然而它们在理论及应用中存在着诸多不易解决的问题。有鉴于此，以随机模拟法为基础，建立了求解防洪发电相结合的水库群防洪库容优化模型。在洪水的模拟方面，使用多站典型解集模型，并提出一种新的模型参数估计方法———多站权重模型适线法。实践证明，该方法对于多站非简单样本的参数估计是有效的。在水库群防洪库容优化分配方面，以随机动态规划方法为依据，结合我们推导的多元线性条件相关余差模式求解条件概率分布。模型在湖南省某大流域水库群防洪库容的设计中得到了应用，并取得了较好的效果。

The methods of recorded data sequence and regional constitution of design flood are usually in design of flood control reservoir volume.But ther are many problems in theory and practice about these methods.To solve the problems,this paper develops an optimum model based on random simulation method for solving volume of reservoir group flood control.In flood simulation,a new method of model parameter estimation,which named multi-station weight fit-curve method,is built up by using multi-station typical solution group model.The experiment proved that the method is effective in parameter estimation.In optimum operation model of electric generation,conditional probability distribution is solved based on random dynamic program and remainder error made of conditional multivariate linear relation which is established in the paper.The model has been used and is very effective in design of flood control reservoir group in a large watershed in Hu′nan Province.