沿河县耕地生产潜力及人口承载力

Productive Potentiality and Population Sustainability of Cultivated Land in Yanhe County

以沿河县为例,运用逆向因子修正法研究耕地生产潜力,并运用灰色模型对耕地、粮食产量、人口进行预测,进而对该县耕地资源承载力进行评价。结果表明,沿河县耕地生产潜力仍有46.27%可供利用,潜力较大;结合温饱型、宽裕型、小康型及富裕型这4种生活类型所需的营养结构,通过承载率比的计算,2010年、2020年沿河县耕地资源人口承载力达到小康型水平,富裕型在现有生产条件下较难实现。

The productive potentiality of cultivated land, and cultivated land, grain yield and population were analyzed and forecasted by the conversed factor amendment method and grey model respectively to evaluate its sustainability of cultivated land resource in Yanhe county. The results showed that 46.72% of productive potentiality of cultivated land can he developed in the future in Yanhe county. The comfortable and well-off living level of Yanhe county will be hard to be realized in 2010 and 2020 respectively according to the nutrition construction of comfortable and well-off living type based on calculating population sustainability of cultivated land.