摘要
提出了一种基于不确定信息和蒙特卡罗模拟的多目标决策方法,在投入一定的情况下,选取最合适的台风防灾减灾措施。该方法允许决策者对不同属性指标给出相应的效用函数和属性权重区间值,通过随机选取权重值和效用函数区间内的值相乘得出结果,并使用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对结果进行了敏感性分析。最后,以浙江省台风灾害防灾减灾措施的比较为例,详细讨论了该方法的应用。
A multi-objective decision method based on uncertain information and Monte Carlo simulation is put forward. This method allows policy makers valuate different attributes with appropriate utility function and weight interval. The result is got by multiplying randomly selected weight value and utility function within the range. Then the sensitivity of the result is analyzed by using Monte Carlo simulation technology. Finally, disaster prevention and mitigation measures of Zhejiang province are compared as an example and the method application is discussed in detail.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2009年第2期30-33,共4页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
十一五国家科技支撑计划(200603746006)
关键词
不确定信息
蒙特卡罗模拟
多目标决策
台风
浙江
uncertain information
Monte Carlo simulation
multi-objective decision
typhoon
Zhejiang province
