中国近300年来3次大旱灾的灾情及原因比较

Comparison of Disaster Situation and Causes of Three Extreme Droughts in China over the Past 300 Years

根据中国近500年旱涝史料和历史文献,选取过去300年中发生在乾隆后期(1784-1786)、光绪初年(1875-1878)和民国时期(1927-1930)的3次严重旱灾,从旱灾的时空发展过程、发生时的区域自然环境和社会政治经济背景三个方面进行了对比分析。结果表明:以旱情的严重程度而言,3次旱灾都可谓过去300年间我国北方地区罕见的极端气候事件,但由于各次旱灾的受灾中心所处区域的自然环境条件(受气候条件影响的环境承载力)有优劣之分,旱灾发生时的不同社会经济背景(人均粮食占有量、政府粮食储备、财政情况等)造成的防灾御灾能力有高下之别,在不同层面上左右了3次旱灾的灾情,从而使其对社会经济的影响程度有显著差异。

Based on historical records and documents about drought and flood in China in the past 500 years,three severe droughts, which occurred in the Qianlong Period of the Qing Dynasty （ 1784 - 1786）, the Guangxu Period of the Qing Dynasty （ 1875 - 1878 ）, and the Republic of China Period （ 1927 - 1930）, are considered as the most terrible droughts in the past 300 years. The temporal and spatial distribution, natural environment and social and economic background of the three droughts are compared. The results indicate that the three droughts are the extreme climate events in North China in the past 300 years. The different natural environments, climate condition, social economic background and capability for disaster prevention determined the disaster condition of the three droughts. Because of the above mentioned differences, the impacts of the droughts on the human society and the economic systems are obviously different.