摘要
在论述用死亡度来描述强震破坏合理性的基础上，利用与目前震害资料现状相一致的概率模型和相关资料，计算得到了中国各分区在未来不同时间发生不同死亡度的概率曲线；并以唐山地震震害得到的死亡度衰减关系，由现行的地震危险性分析模型，计算了华北北部（114°－117°E，39°－41°N）未来10年和50年超越概率10％死亡度的空间分布。
Based on the discussion of the reasonableness on describing the disaster of the strong earthquake by the dead degree, the probability curves of the different dead degree of the different tine periods in future for various regions have been obtained by the probability model and the related data in accordance with recent precision of the earthquake disaster data' At the same time the spatial distribution of the dead degree in coming 10 and 50 years with 10% ultra-probability of the northern part of North China (114°-117°E, 39°- 41°N)have been shown by available seismic risk analysis model with the attenuation relation of the dead degree for Tangshan earthquake.
出处
《华北地震科学》
1998年第1期10-16,共7页
North China Earthquake Sciences
基金
国家地震局地震联合基金
关键词
华北
唐山地震
地震灾害
概率预测模型
人口损失
North China
Tangshan earthquake
Seismic hazard
assessment of Seismic hazard
