东海台风出现次数以及在我省沿海登陆的分析与预测

Analysis and prediction of typhoon number over the East China Sea and landing typhoon number on Zhejing coast

根据３７年（１９５３～１９８９年）的有关气象资料分析表明，浙北地区当年３月温度，上年４～６月降水量，秋、冬季干湿度和年积温与当年东海热带气旋（指强度达到热带风暴以上的热带气旋以下统称台风）出现次数之间有着密切的相关性。在此基础上进一步分析了前期一些气象要素与登陆台风之间的关系，并由此分别建立预报东海台风出现多寡和台风是否登陆的判别式。从其拟合和试报结果来看，效果令人满意。

The results from correlation analysis of 37 years (1953￣1989) related meteorological data indicate that the typhoon number over the East China Sea every year is closely related to the monthly aveaged temperature of very March, total rainfall of last April to June, drought index of last autumn and annual accumulated temperature of last year in north Zhejiang A further analysis reveals some relationship between above meteorological factors and typhoon number landing on Zhejiang coast Based on these results, a technique of discriminant analysis for predicting more or less of typhoon occurrence number over the East China Sea and typhoon number landing on Zhejiang coast is developed From fitting of hindcasting and testing forecasting with observed data, the results are satisfactory