中国电价与电耗关系研究

Relationship between electricity price and electricity intensity in China

基于协整理论和误差修正模型,研究了影响我国电耗的主要因素,着重考虑电价、国内生产总值和工业在经济结构中所占比重,并对1979—2006年各影响因素与电耗的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:国内生产总值与电耗不存在长期均衡关系,工业所占比重变化与电耗变化之间没有显著的格兰杰因果关系;而电价与电耗之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系和协整关系,且脉冲响应检验显示,电价对电耗的影响将逐渐加大,随着电价机制的市场化改革,其影响会更加明显。对中国降低电耗水平,科学制定电价提出了建议。

This paper analyzes the main factors impacting electricity intensity in China based on Cointegration Theory and Error Correction Model firstly, which includes power price, gross domestic product and the proportion of industry in whole economy. Then the relationship between electricity intensity and its impacting factors are studied based on the data during 1979-2006. The results indicate that there is no long-run equilibrium relation- ship between GDP and electricity intensity, and the Granger cau- sality relationship between the proportion of industry in whole economy and electricity intensity is not significant. But there exists bidirectional Granger causality relationship between power price and electricity intensity, and it shows a co-integration relationship between them. What＇ s more, impulse response test shows that the impact on electricity intensity from power price will gradually increase in long-term. Some suggestions are put forward about scientific price and consumption reduction.