经济周期波动、危机与管控实践及理论再研究——科学管控观与目前中国克服危机的依据及途径

On the Practice and Theory of Economic Cyclical Fluctuation,Crisis and Control

资本经济周期性危机的社会经济根源始终是相对需求不足,虽然引爆具体原因不同。世界经济一体发展的结果使危机的同步性提高,因此高贸易依存度使中国不可能独善。经济周期包括危机、萧条、复苏、高涨四个一般阶段,而危机阶段又包括九个段落,并与金融危机密切相关。认识危机、认识中国自身优劣,才能克服危机。但是,克服危机还需要马克思学派的正确理论指导,需要根据中国实践选择突破口和经济杠杆。

Although there are different causes, the social root of cyclical crisis of capitalist economy is always the shortage of demand. The synchronization of economic crisis is becoming more and more obvious with globalization of world economy. Economic cycle includes four stages： crisis, depression, recovery and rising. In the crisis stage, there are nine stages, which are closely related with financial crisis. To know the crisis and to know the advantages and disadvantages of China is the key to overcoming it. Moreover, overcoming crisis will need the right theoretical instruction. We should choose the proper point to break through according to Chinese facts, and use economic lever.