长江口海域船舶突发性溢油对渔业生态风险的评价

The assessment of fishery ecological risk caused by oil spilled in the estuary of Yangtze River

应用美国EMI公司的SMS(surface-watermodeling system)软件计算长江口海域四季的潮流场,并应用溢油全动力轨迹模式、溢油扩展扩散模式和溢油蒸发溶解模式等来模拟四季在南槽航道发生250 t溢油事故后油团的漂移轨迹,扩展范围以及油团中心浓度分布变化。结合美国农药办公室(OPP)提出的生态风险的表征方法即商值法进行风险区划。最后得出结论:发生溢油事故对鱼类春夏季出现不可接受的风险区域,对虾类影响很大,四季均出现大面积不可接受的风险区域,对贝类大部分为可缓和的风险区域。夏季发生溢油事故油团将影响到湿地生态自然保护区、中华鲟保护区和江苏省的滩涂围垦区。夏季溢油危害最严重,其次为春季,春季溢油同样将影响到湿地生态自然保护区和中华鲟保护区。冬季发生溢油事故要注意控制油团影响范围,秋季发生溢油事故影响较小。

This paper uses the software of SMS to calculate the tidal field of Changjiang estuary in every season. It applied dynamical drifting model, spreading model and dissolution model to simulate the excursion contrail, the spread scope and the distributing of the oil＇ s concentration when 250 t oil spilled in Nancao sea- route. And it also uses the ecological risk characterization brought forward by American Pesticide Office to compartmentalize the risk area. Finally it comes to a conclusion that the oil spilled in summer will affect the everglade zoology nature protection area, China sturgeon protection area and the beach inning area of Jiangsu province. So the oil spilled in summer is the most dangerous. Next is in spring, the oil spilled in spring also will affect the everglade zoology nature protection area, China sturgeon protection area. It is important to control the oil incidence in winter and the oil spilled in autumn is the least dangerous.