市盈率对股市泡沫破裂的预警作用

The Precaution Mechanism of P/E Multiple on the Burst of the Stock Market Bubble

股票泡沫是一种常态,在其膨胀的过程中遵循由股票泡沫质变为泡沫股票,最终发展到泡沫破裂的演绎路径,由股票组成的证券市场同样遵循此路径.FED模型(联邦模型)以市盈率为指标,对股市泡沫破裂做出预警,曾多次有效预警了美国股市的大跌.在美国FED模型的基础上,结合我国A股市场历年来的发展状况,构建符合我国国情的模型,并检验模型的有效性.

The expectation of the market participants makes bubble in stock market a normal status. The bubble of the stock expands to the extent that the stock becomes a bubble stock, and finally bursts. The stock market, built up with thousands of single stock, also follows this rule. FED （Federal） model, got its name from several appearances in federal reports, presenting the precaution mechanism of P/E multiple, makes precaution on the dangerous stock bubble, successfully predicted several crashes in American stock market history. A model which is more applicable for China is built up based on the American FED model, and its effectiveness is examined.