第五轮世界经济长波进入衰退期的趋势、原因和特点分析

The Fifth Long Wave of World Economy Entering its Descending Stage:The Trend,Causes and Characteristics

当前世界经济发展的趋势表明,第五轮世界经济长波的繁荣期即将结束,并于2009年左右开始进入衰退期。导致第五轮长波繁荣期结束的深层原因是推动本轮经济长波上升的信息技术创新的持续降温和信息产业发展的后劲乏力。美国次贷危机之所以成为第五轮经济长波进入衰退期的"导火索",其周期性因素是次贷危机恰好发生在第五轮经济长波繁荣期的末端;其技术性因素是信息技术产业市场饱和致使大量资本从实体经济流向金融、房地产业等虚拟经济。当前以信息技术为基础的第五轮经济长波下降期的特点是:持续的时间会相对较短;即使是在长周期的低谷,经济增长可能更多表现为增长率的下降而非负增长。

The tendency of the present world economy development indicates that the ascending stage of the fifth long wave of world economy seems to expire and in 2009 begins its descending stage.The profound reason of it is the continuous slowdown of the information technology innovation and the lacks of staying power in information industry.Why does the US subprime lending crisis lead to the turn? The cyclical reason is that the crisis happens just when the rising period is coming to end while the technological one is that plenty of capital flows from the real economy to the fictitious one due to the overdevelopment of the information industry.The descending stage of the fifth long wave is expected to last for a rather short period,and even in the trough there is able to be a slow but not negative growth rate.