基于地理集中度的中国水产品出口不稳定性研究

Analyzing the Export Instability of China's Aquatic Product Based on the Geographic Concentration

以地理集中化指标、出口多样化指数等为研究变量,实证分析中国水产品出口地理结构与其出口不稳定性的相互关系,结果显示:中国水产品五大出口市场中,亚洲的日本、韩国和香港市场的波动趋势相近,决定了水产品出口不稳定性的大部分,不断扩大的美国、欧盟市场可以一定程度地平抑亚洲市场的冲击;但美国、欧盟市场自身的不稳定性及波动的趋势相关性使得其平抑作用十分有限;通过调整出口地理结构,开拓新的市场可以降低总体出口的不稳定性。

Taking geographic concentration index and export diversification index as research variables, this paper makes a positive study on causal and fluctuant relations between geographic concentration and export instability of China＇s aquatic product. The paper＇s analysis indicates that, of the five foreign aquatic product markets, the fluctuant trends of Japan, Korea and Hong Kong markets are similar, and most of the export instability of China＇s aquatic product is caused by these markets. The instability can be partly counteracted by exports to Europe and America market. How- ever, due to the highly correlation of the fluctuation trends and the instability of themselves, the stabilizing effects are too limited. Through adjusting export geographic structure and exploiting new markets, especially ASEAN and Canada market, the export instability will greatly decline.