中美贸易结构的稳定性分析:基于产品周期理论的研究

The Sustainability of Trade Structure between China and America:Based on the Theory of Product Cycle

在构建了描述商品贸易收支差额和价值量比重的两个标准化指标NB和NV之后,本文首先在全部商品的基础上对中美贸易结构的稳定性进行分析,只发现了有限的稳定性;然后,从产品周期角度研究中美贸易格局中存在的动态性,分析了三个基点前后具有产品周期性的商品的变动趋势,结果表明由产品周期引起的动态性明显存在,而且从20世纪90年代开始显著增加,可以用来解释中国对美国形成的巨额贸易顺差;除此之外,还发现产品周期性具有从低技术向中技术再向高技术逐渐升级的趋势。

This paper constructs two standard indexes： NB, which is to describe the balance of trade, and NV, which is to describe the relative trade value. Firstly, the paper studies the sustainability of structure of trade based on the whole sample of commodity and finds out a moderate sustainability. Subsequently, the paper decomposes the dynamic characteristics in the structure of trade from the angle of theory of product cycle. The paper analyzes the commodities which contain product cycle characteristics across three base points and conclusions show that there exists significant dynamic characteristics arising from product cycle and it becomes more and more obvious during 1990s that can be used to explain the huge trade surplus of China against America. In addition, the paper also discovers that the characteristics of product cycle moves from low technology to medium, and then to high technology.