我国进出口商品结构与对外直接投资的相关性研究──基于VAR模型的分析框架

The Relations between China's Structure of Import and Export Goods and Outward FDI:Based on the Framework of VAR Model

本文以我国1982-2007年的相关数据为样本,基于VAR模型的分析框架实证研究了我国进出口商品结构与对外直接投资的相关性。结果表明:进出口商品结构与对外直接投资存在长期均衡关系,其中初级产品出口、工业制成品出口分别与对外直接投资存在相互替代效应,初级产品进口、工业制成品出口分别与对外直接投资存在相互补充效应;进出口商品结构中各变量与对外直接投资均不存在短期因果关系,但共同构成了影响对外直接投资变化的短期因素。

Based on the statistical data from 1982 to 2007, this Paper studies the correlation between China＇s structure of import and export goods and outward direct investment in the framework of VAR model. The results indicate that there exists a long-term and balanced relationship between them, mutual substitution effects between primary goods export, manufactured goods import and out- ward FDI, and mutual supplementary effects between primary goods import, manufactured goods ex- port and outward FDI. Each variable in the structure of import and export goods has no short-term causal relationship with outward FDI, but all of the variables constitutes short-term reasons of out- ward FDI change.