基于CA模型的土地利用变化研究——以新疆鄯善县为例

Research on Land Use Change Based on CA Model

本文首先运用新疆鄯善县2005年土地利用数据进行现状分析，分析了鄯善县土地利用的特点；运用1993年～2000年的土地变更数据，对鄯善县的土地利用变化的特点进行了进一步分析，找出鄯善县土地利用变化的特点和变化的方向、幅度，然后选择鄯善县城及附近的区域作为实验区，进行CA模型的建立与实现。以实验区1990年TM影像作为基础数据；以实验区2000年TM影像作为训练模型的训练数据，对模型进行调试；以2005年的资源二号卫星影像数据作为检验模型的检验数据，对模型进行评价和检验。最后运用模型模拟2010年的实验区土地利用状况。

The land use data in Shanshan County in Xinjiang in 2005 was used to carry on present condition analysis. The land use characteristics in Shanshan County were analyzed. Using the land alteration data during 1993 - 2000, the land use characteristics in Shanshan Cotmty were further analyzed. The characteristics, direction, range of land use changes in Shanshan County were found out. Selecting the Shanshan County and districts in the neighbor- hood as test area, CA model was established and realized. With TM image in experiment area in 1990 as the foundation data, with TM image in experiment area in 2000 as the training data of training model, the model was adjusted. Using the satellite image data of the resources No. 2 in 2005 as the examination data of the examination model, the model was evaluated and examined. Finally, the land use condition in 2010 was stimulated by using the model.