人民币内外均衡汇率:1982～2010年

The Internal and External Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB： 1982～2010

本文估计基于内外经济均衡的人民币基本均衡汇率,结果表明,1982～1991年人民币汇率高估,而自2004年以来,低估程度不断加深。进一步,提出"事前均衡汇率理论"并度量基于内外经济均衡的人民币事前均衡汇率,发现2008～2010年间,人民币实际有效汇率需升值20%左右,而人民币对世界关键货币的名义升值幅度取决于政策层面的目标函数。其政策含义是:以不同理论得到的均衡汇率值为参考,根据现实经济动态变化,设置好人民币"事前均衡汇率",努力朝此均衡水平调整;推行"人民币汇率升值隐性目标区间制",2008～2010年人民币兑美元双边汇率升值幅度只需定在6%～10%之间。

This paper estimates fundamental equilibrium exchange rate of RMB based on internal and external balance of China＇s economy. The findings indicate that RMB real exchange rate is overvalued in the period of 1982--1991, but the extent of the undervaluation has an enlarging trend since 2004. Then, we put forward a new theory called ＂Prior Equilibrium Exchange Rate＂ and apply to RMB, which find that real effective exchange rate of RMB needs to be appreciated about twenty percent between 2008 and 2010, and the bilateral nominal exchange rate between RMB and the world＇s key currency depends on the objective functions of the government. Policy implication indicates that decision maker needs to refer to equilibrium exchange rate which is derived from different theories and to make great efforts to adjust it towards equilibrium level. And also decision maker should implement an exchange rate appreciation target.