技术进步、产业结构变动对我国就业效应的经验研究

Technical Progress, Industrial Structure Transition and Their Effects on China's Employment

技术进步在影响我国产业结构的同时也引起就业总量与结构的变化。本文引入交互效应模型,在利用DEA方法估算我国整体以及二、三产业全要素生产率的基础上,探讨了技术进步、产业结构变动与我国就业增长之间的影响机制与关联效应,结果表明,我国第二产业技术进步对我国整体就业增长的影响并不显著,第三产业的技术进步制约了其对整体就业的贡献,产业结构变动过程所造成的结构性失业会对我国就业产生显著的负面影响。

Technical progress affects the industrial structure and simultaneously changes the employment gross and structure. In this paper, based on DEA analysis on the TFP of China＇s provinces, an multiplicative interaction model is introduce to discuss the influencing mechanism and relgting effect between technical progress, industrial structure variation and the employment increase in China. It is shown that the technical progress in secondary industry can hardly affect the holistic employment increase in China, while the technical progress in tertiary industry restricts its contribution to the holistic employment, meanwhile, structural unemployment raised by the industrial structure changing process will bring significant negative impact to the employment in China.