摘要
根据河北省多年冬小麦产量和冬麦区气候资料,采用改进的气候产量分离方法,分析气候变暖对小麦产量的影响。结果发现:河北省冬麦区冬季气温呈上升趋势,平均每10a上升0.5℃,春季气温也是升高的,但不如冬季升温明显,平均每10a上升0.3℃;冬小麦产量与冬季、春季降水量相关不明显,而与冬季、春季气温存在显著的正相关关系。河北省冬小麦实际单产呈逐年增加趋势,每10a约增加1125kg/hm2;而气候产量与冬小麦实际单产变化明显不同,随着气候变暖,气候产量波动性逐年增大,近年气候产量波动幅度达到±300kg/hm2。从总体看,随着气候变暖,气候产量呈下降趋势,平均每10a减少52.7kg/hm2。气温造成小麦产量波动幅度一般在±10%之间,但随着小麦实际单产逐年提高,气候变暖对小麦单产所造成的损失越来越大。
Based on data of winter wheat yield and climate data of winter wheat region in Hebei province, by using improved separation method of climate yield from actual yield, quantitative analysis were conducted about impacts of climate warming on winter wheat yield. The results showed that the winter temperature in winter wheat region had upward trend,averaging each 10 years rose 0.5℃ ,and the spring temperature was also rising, averaging each 10 years rose 0. 3℃. The winter wheat yield had no correlation with winter, spring precipitation, but had considerable correlation with winter, spring temperature. Along with the social development, improved varieties and improved cultivation techniques, the actual yield of Hebei province winter wheat was increasing year by year, each 10 years increased 1125 kg/ ha approximately. The change of the climate yield was significantly different with that of actual yield, the fluctuation of climate yield became more and more larger as the climate warming,consequently leading to ± 300 kg/ha fluctuation in recent years. The future climate warming isn' t conducive to winter wheat production and climate yield will decrease as a result of climate warming,average each 10 years reduced 52.7 kg/ha. The fluctuation of the wheat yield caused by temperature was generally between ±10% ,but losses of wheat yield caused by climate warming was more and more big during to gradually increased yield.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2009年第2期204-207,共4页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
国家财政部气象行业专项"农业气候资源评价与高效利用技术研究"(GYHY200706030)
河北省科技支撑项目"气候变化对河北省粮食安全的影响研究"(09276903D)
关键词
河北省
气候影响因子
冬小麦
气候产量
Hebei Province
Climate warming
Winter wheat
Climate yield