我国保险业区域发展失衡的实证研究:基于保险密度的视角

Empirical Study on Regional Gap of Insurance in China Based on Insurance Density Perspective

本文建立了识别我国省际保险业发展影响因素的多元线性模型和识别我国省际保险业发展失衡成因的多元离差模型并运用格兰杰因果检验和逐步回归法为模型选择了最优的解释变量。除相关关系外,保证变量间还存在因果关系,并降低了解释变量间的共线性。实证结果表明,经济发展是推动我国省际保险业发展的根本动力,省际保险业发展失衡的主要原因是经济发展水平的差异,而不是社会文化环境和法律环境的差异。

This paper sets up a multivariate model to identify the determinants of provincial insurance development, and a multi-deviation model to testify the causes of insurance development difference among provinces. By Granger test and stepwise regression, we select the fittest regressors for both models to ensure causality between regressors and estimators and decrease multicollinearity among regressors. It concludes that the economic development is the fundamental determinant of provincial insurance, and that the difference of insurance development among provinces originates from economic development difference.