利用改进的GM(1,1,λ)模型预测舰艇批量生产成本

An Improved GM(1,1,λ) Model in Cost-forecasting of Warship Batch Production

在分析GM(1,1,λ)模型的建模机理的基础上,指出传统建模方法存在的不足,基于GM(1,1,λ)模型的还原数据模型与原始序列的第一点无关,提出一种可以完全利用全部已知信息的建模方法。同时给出基于遗传算法的GM(1,1,λ)优化模型,优化模型提高了灰色预测的精度。探讨了应用灰色理论建立舰艇批量生产成本预测模型的可行性,并给出了应用实例。

According to the building mechanism of GM（1,1 ,λ）model, the existent weakness is pointed out of traditional method, based on GM（ 1,1 ,λ） model is independent of first datum of original series, a method of GM（1,1 ,λ） modeling with full information was given. The optimum model is given on the basis of genetic algorithm, the forecasting precision is improved. The feasibility of applying grey theory in construction of cost forecasting model is discussed, and applied to practical case, the result is satisfactory.