雷电临近预警方法和系统研发

Development of Lightning Nowcasting and Warning Method and System

为满足高速发展的现代社会对雷电预警预报气象服务日益增加的需求,中国气象科学研究院研发了雷电临近预警系统(CAMS-LNWS)。CAMS-LNWS采用了多资料、多参数和多算法集成的雷电临近预警方法,能够综合利用雷达、卫星、闪电监测系统、地面电场仪和探空仪等的观测资料,参考天气形势预报产品和雷暴云起电、放电模式运行的结果,结合区域识别、跟踪和外推算法与决策树算法,自动生成雷电活动潜势预报结果和雷电临近预警结果,并提供多种形式的雷电临近预警产品,以满足不同的应用需求。该系统人机界面友好,参数接口丰富,简单易用,有利于在各地区的推广应用。同时该系统采用了模块化的结构设计,具有灵活的扩充性,便于今后对预警方法的不断升级和改进。

To meet the increasing demand of lightning nowcasting and warning services with the rapid development of modern society, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences developed a Lightning Nowcasting and Warning System （CAMS-LNWS）, which integrates multiple observation data, multiple parameters and multiple algorithms. In the lightning nowcasting and warning method, many observation data such as radar, satellite, lightning monitoring system, surface electrical field mill, sounding data, etc., are used. The forecasting products of synoptic situation and the numerical simulation of thunderstorm electrification and discharge model are also considered. Two basic algorithms are implemented： one is area identification, tracking and extrapolating algorithm, and the other is decision tree algorithm. CAMS-LNWS can provide lightning activity potential prediction product and lightning nowcasting and warning products. The latter can be showed in several ways to meet various needs of different applications. It is easy to implement applications of CAMS-LNWS in different regions as a result of its friendly man-machine interfaces and rich controls parameters. Additionally, CAMS-LNWS has modular structure design with a flexible expansibility, which can provide convenient way for the continuous upgrading and improving of nowcasting and warning method in the future.