摘要
对2008年12月至2009年2月T639、ECMWF、日本模式的中期预报性能进行了检验和对比分析。结果表明:3种模式对大气环流的演变和调整、850hPa温度升降变化趋势均有较强的预报能力,其中尤以ECMWF模式预报误差最小。3种模式对重大灾害性、转折性天气过程也有很好的指示性能,较成功地预报了3次全国性寒潮天气过程、长江中下游地区持续阴雨天气过程的大气环流形势特征及主要影响系统。
It was verified and compared that the performance of T639, ECMWF and Japan model about their medium-range forecasting during Dec. 2008 to Feb. 2009. The result shows that the three models have good performances for the evolvement and adjustment of atmospheric circulation situation in Asia middle and high latitude area, and also for the temperature trends of 850hPa. The prediction error of ECMWF model is minimal in that of the three models. They all show significant indication to forecast the transition and disaster weather processes, and have successfully predicted the atmospheric circulation situation and main effecting synoptic systems of the three cold wave processes on a national scale, and continuous rainfall weather process occurring in the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第5期112-119,共8页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
中期预报性能
天气学检验
对比分析
the performance of medium-range weather forecasting synoptic verification contrast and analysis
