GM(1.N)动态模型研究方法在高水平运动员训练状态分析与决策研究中的应用

THE APPLIGATION OF GM (1. N) DYNAMIC PATTERN TO THE ANALYSIS OF TOP ATHLETES' TRAINING STATE AND DECISION-MAKING RESEARCH

GM（1．N）动态模型是灰色理论中的一种对事物现时状态进行分析的研究方法，特点是可以对个体运动项目在影响专项运动成绩方面的诸因素进行量化分析，并做出科学的诊断。操作简单易行，研究结果体现了客观性与可行性。打破了传统的数理统计方法，因为数理统计方法在研究过程中必须有一定的样本量，而且研究的结果又是对整体而言的。由于影响运动员专项成绩的诸因素往往表现很大的个体差异，尤其是高水平运动员，所以此方法可以作为高水平运动员在影响运动成绩和训练效果方面的动态研究方法。

GM (1. N) dynamic pattern is a kind of research metfor in the Obscurity Theory which can analyse the object's present state. By using quantitive analysis method on the factors that may inflence the specific sport results in individual sport event, we can make a seientific diagnosis on athletes' training. Its operation is simple and the result objective and feasbility. In traditional mathmatical statistics, the research result represents the whole,but its sarmples are from the specific part. Using GM (1. N) method, thase defects could be avoided. Because of the high individual differences in the factors which inflence the specific event's result, especially to those high-leve athletes, GM (1. N) can be used as a dynamic research method that analyses sport results and training effects in the individul sport event.