灰色人工神经网络人口总量预测模型及应用

Prediction model of population gross based on grey artificial neural network and its application

针对单一指标进行人口总量预测精度不高的问题,基于灰色系统理论和人工神经网络理论,用1990年至2004年中国人口总量序列建立并训练一个多指标的灰色人工神经网络人口总量预测模型。对2005年至2007年的人口总量进行检验性预测,结果表明灰色人工神经网络模型大大提高了预测精度。

To improve the prediction accuracy of gross population,a grey artificial neural network model using multi-indicator is put forward,the model is combined with grey system theory and artificial neural network theory,and is trained using population gross of China （from 1990 to 2004）.Then population gross of China （from 2005 to 2007） are forecasted by grey neural network model.The results show that the prediction accuracy is improved .