财政分权和地方财政支出的周期性行为:1979—2006

Fiscal Decentralization and the Cyclical Behavior of Local Fiscal Expenditure:1979—2006

基于动态相关系数和面板数据回归法,文章给出了1979—2006年间中国各省份地方财政支出周期性行为的基本特征。1994年分税制改革所引致的财政分权程度的下降,在省份经济周期同步性提高和中央政府有足够财力、意愿和能力实行逆周期宏观政策的背景下,地方财政支出对经济波动的综合性反应从顺周期模式为主转变为逆周期模式为主,在平抑省份经济波动的过程中起到了重要作用。不过,地方财政支出对省份异质性波动的顺周期程度提高明显。因此,需要进一步推进国内一体化的进程,提高中央政府宏观调控的水平以及地方政府应对异质性经济波动的能力。

Based on the methods of dynamic correlation and panel data regression, this paper provides the cyclical behaviour of local expenditure in every province in China during the period of 1979 -2006. After 1994＇ s fiscal reform, fiscal decentralization level decreases and the central government has enough money, the will and capability to implement the countereyclical macroeconomic policy, and due to the higher provincial business cycle syn- chronization within China, response of local expenditure to business cycles turns to counter- cyclicality from pro -cyclicality, which play an important role in provincial economic stabilization. However, the response of local expenditure to the province - specific fluctuation turns to more pro - cyclical. Thus, the integration of provinces within China should be promoted, and the capability of central government＇ s macro - control and the capability of local government to counter the province - specific fluctuation should be strengthen.