摘要
本文基于杭州市土地储备中心近10年收储状况的原始数据,应用回归分析和VaR(在险值)方法构建模型,定量分析了杭州市土地储备资金回收的风险状况,并给出不同置信度下土地储备资金回收额的预测结果。文中所得结论可为相关政策制定提供依据。
This paper presents a case study of land reservation in hangzhou. The data associated with the areas, funds, loans, estate investments and GDP of last decade are compiled by regression analysis and VaR method. The results include the assessment of actual status of land reservation funds retrieval and relevant predictive values in future given different Confidence values. Conclusions drawn in this paper might be helpful on corresponding policy decision.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第3期71-74,共4页
Forecasting
