基于焊缝失效的管道安全概率数学模型

Welded Seam Failure-based Mathematical Model of Pipeline System Safety Probability

针对管道断裂失效主要发生在焊缝处的问题,提出了采用焊缝的安全近似等价于管道的安全的方法,将缺陷焊缝的安全概率看作随机变量,且服从正态分布。考虑一条共有N条焊缝的管道,通过分层抽样法对同期施工的同类材质、相同焊接条件的管道进行抽样检测,在已知样本值的前提下,建立数学模型,给出整条管道安全概率在一定置信度下的置信上限和置信下限。

Considering the fracture failure of pipeline occurred mainly at the welded seam, the safety of pipeline approximately equal to the safety of the welded seam is put forward, which takes safety probability of welded seam with defects as a random variable,and is subjected to normal distribution. Consider a pipeline with n welded seams, by stratified sampling method from the pipeline with same pipe steel and welding condition, and measure it. A mathematical model is established based on given values, the confidence interval under a given degree of confidence safety probability of the whole pipeline could be obtained.