老龄化的储蓄效应分析被引量：6

The Impact of Population Aging on Savings

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摘要储蓄是影响一国经济增长的重要因素,因此研究储蓄率的变化及决定储蓄的因素具有重要的意义。在影响储蓄的众多因素中,人口结构变化对储蓄和经济增长的影响越来越受到关注。上世纪70年代计划生育政策的推行和人口预期寿命的延长,加快了我国人口转变及老龄化发展的步伐。老龄化的发展必将改变居民的储蓄消费行为,影响储蓄—消费模式和储蓄率。老龄化对储蓄的影响具有不确定性,在经济发展的不同阶段,老龄化对储蓄的影响可能是积极的,也可能是消极的,老龄化对储蓄的影响具有明显的门限特征。 Savings is an important factor of a nation＇s economic growth Accordingly, it is of great significance to study the change of savings rate and its determinants. Among the factors, the impact of population structure on savings and economic growth has been drawing more and more attention. The implementation of the one-child policy since 1970s and increasing life expectancy has accelerated the pace of population aging which will in turn change the saving-consumption behavior of individuals and affect both the saving-consumption pattern and the savings rate. The impact of population aging on savings is indeterminate. It could be positive or negative at different stages of economic development. The impact of aging on savings has an obvious threshold effect.

作者苏春红刘小勇

机构地区山东大学经济学院

出处《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第3期26-31,共6页 Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基金山东省软科学计划项目(A200631-2) 山东省社科规划项目(06CJZ010)

关键词老龄化门限面板模型储蓄率老年抚养比生命周期假说 population aging threshold panel model savings rate old dependency ratio life cycle hypothesis

分类号 F832.22 [经济管理—金融学] C913.6 [经济管理]

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参考文献12

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