中国大豆外贸依存度影响因素分析

Analysis on Influencing Factors of Foreign Trade Dependence of China's Soybean

本文利用年度数据,测算了1988—2007年中国大豆外贸依存度,并对中国大豆外贸依存度的变化趋势特征进行了分析。在此基础上,构建了中国大豆外贸依存度实证模型,定量分析了中国大豆外贸依存度的影响因素。研究结果表明:国内大豆压榨需求和大豆关税税率的变化对中国大豆外贸依存度具有显著影响;而国内外大豆价格差、外汇储备以及实施转基因安全管理条例等因素对中国大豆外贸依存度的影响不显著。

Using the annual data during 1988--2007, this paper calculates the foreign trade dependence of China＇s soybean, and analyzes the characteristics of change trend of foreign trade dependence of China＇s soybean. Then,it establishes the empirical model to analyze the factors influencing foreign trade dependence of Cbina＇s soybean quantitatively. The results show that,the change of domestic press demand for soybean and the tariff have significant impacts on the foreign trade dependence of China＇s soybean,while the impacts of price gap of soybean at home and abroad,foreign exchange reserve and the implementation of safety management regulation of transgene are all not obvious.